Tag Archives: #homepriceexpectationsurvey

What’s Next for Home Prices

As the housing market cools in response to the rise in mortgage rates, home price appreciation is slowing as well. If you’re following the headlines in the media, you’re probably seeing a wide range of opinions calling for everything from falling home prices to ongoing appreciation. 

But what’s true? What’s most likely to happen moving forward?

While opinions differ, the most likely outcome is we’ll fall somewhere in the middle of slight appreciation and slight depreciation. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections, so you have the best information available today.

What the Experts Are Saying About Home Prices Next Year

The graph below shows the most up-to-date forecasts from five experts in the housing industry. These are the experts that have most recently updated their projections based on current market trends:

What’s Ahead for Home Prices? | MyKCM

As the graph shows, the three blue bars represent experts calling for ongoing home price appreciation, just at a more moderate rate than recent years. The red bars on the graph are experts calling for home price depreciation.

While there isn’t a clear consensus, if you take the average (shown in green) of all five of these forecasts, the most likely outcome is, nationally, home price appreciation will be fairly flat next year.

What Does This Mean?

Basically, experts are divided on what’s ahead for 2023. Home prices will likely depreciate slightly in some markets and will continue to gain ground in others. It all depends on the conditions in your local market, like how overheated that market was in recent years, current inventory levels, buyer demand, and more.

Prices vary from market-to-market and parts of the country. We’re friendly with colleagues in our business from across the country and watch them market homes for $450,000.00, for example, that would fetch $650,00.00 or more here.

What’s not going to happen is a dramatic drop in prices that some buyers are waiting for. No reputable expert is predicting the “crash” that would allow that to occur.

The good news is home prices are expected to return to more normal levels of appreciation rather quickly. The latest forecast from Wells Fargo shows that, while they feel prices could drop slightly in 2023, they also think prices will recover and net positive in 2024. That forecast calls for 3.1% appreciation in 2024, which is a number much more in line with the long-term average of 4% annual appreciation.

And the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics, a poll of over one hundred industry experts, also calls for ongoing appreciation of roughly 2.6 to 4% from 2024-2026. This goes to show, even if prices decline slightly next year, it’s not expected to be a lasting trend.

As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer for Parcl, says: “In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly driven by fear, uncertainty and doubt.”:

As “Prof Hank” explained in a recent video posted to our YouTube channel, the media is not your best source of information.

So, don’t let fear, uncertainty or misinformation change your plans. If you’re unsure about where prices are headed or how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, let’s connect.

Please consider subscribing to our YouTube channel where we post up-to–date information for buyers and sellers that is pertinent to where we live. Or let’s chat at 508-360-5664 or msennott@todayrealerstate.com.

As we’ve mentioned before, we sold and bought earlier this year, so we had many of the same questions and concerns as homeowners as you might have. We’re happy to share with you what we learned as homeowners, as well as our perspective as real estate professionals.

Let’s talk soon…

Mari and Hank

Questions Homebuyers Should Be Asking Right Now

The increase in interest rates has started to slow the overheated housing market as potential monthly mortgage payments have pushed — at least temporarily — some buyers to the sidelines. This is leaving some people, who want to purchase a home or sell their current one, wondering if now is really the right time.

If this sounds like you, here are two questions you should be asking yourself.

1. Where Do I Think Home Prices Are Heading?

There are two places to turn for answers to this question. If you look at what experts are projecting for home prices in 2023, they’re forecasting home price appreciation around 2%. While it’s true that a few are calling for depreciation, most are calling for appreciation in home values over the next year.

The second spot to turn to for information is the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics – a survey of a national panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. According to the latest release, the experts surveyed are also calling for home price appreciation for the next several years (see graph below):

Two Questions Every Homebuyer Should Ask Themselves Right Now | MyKCM

2. Where Do I Think Interest Rates Are Heading?

Most experts see mortgage rates rising over the next several months. According to Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American: “While mortgage rates are expected to continue to drift higher over the coming months, much of the rapid increase in rates is likely behind us.”

To date, we’ve seen mortgage interest rates generate head-line grabbing increases only to inch back with little or no fanfare. It’s important to remember that mortgage rates remain lower than they have in years, and while they won’t return to historical lows, rates also won’t spike to the historic highs of the late 90s.

Buyers should keep in close contact with their lenders to stay up-to-date on what they can afford.

If you’re thinking about buying a home, asking yourself about prices and mortgage rates will help you make a powerful and confident decision. The alternative is renting, but they’re also increasing and are often higher than what your mortgage could be. That may mean buying a home makes more sense. And don’t forget that when you rent, you’re really just paying your landlord’s mortgage. So, you might as well pay your own.

Questions? We’re happy to sit down with you and review your options. We can also put you in touch with qualified lenders, who can discuss with you financial options. It’s important that you speak with experts in order to make an informed decision and not your Mother’s cousin Gretchen, who sold a few houses 20 years ago.

So, let’s connect at 508-360-5664 or msennott@todayrealestate.com. Let’s talk soon…

Mari and Hank

Should You Buy a Home Right Now?

If you’ve been thinking about buying a home, there’s one question that you’re no doubt asking yourself: should I buy right now, or should I wait?  While no one can answer that question for you, here’s some information that could help you make your decision.

The Future of Home Price Appreciation

Each quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists to compile projections for the future of home price appreciation. The output is the Home Price Expectation Survey. In the latest release, it forecasts home prices will continue appreciating over the next five years (see graph below):

Should I Buy a Home Right Now? | MyKCM

As the graph shows, the rate of appreciation will moderate over the next few years as the market shifts away from the unsustainable pace it saw during the pandemic. After this year, experts project home price appreciation will continue, but at levels that are more typical for the market. 

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “People should not anticipate another double-digit price appreciation. Those days are over…We may return to a more normal price appreciation of 4-5% a year.”

For you, ongoing appreciation should give you peace of mind that your investment in homeownership is worthwhile, because you’re buying an asset that’s projected to grow in value in the years ahead.

What Does That Mean for You?

To give you an idea of how this could impact your net worth, here’s how a typical home could grow in value over the next few years using the expert price appreciation projections from the Pulsenomics survey mentioned above (see graph below):

Should I Buy a Home Right Now? | MyKCM

As the graph conveys, even at a more typical pace of appreciation, you still stand to make significant equity gains as your home grows in value. That’s what’s at stake if you delay your plans.

As of June 20, the median sales price for a single family home on Cape Cod is $694,250.00. While that is certainly higher than just a few years ago, it’s still less than Boston ($800,000) and many surrounding communities. Plus, the Cape also offers much more in terms of quality school systems, recreational and outdoor activities, etc.

So, if you’re ready to become a homeowner, know that buying today can set you up for long-term success as your home’s value (and your own net worth) is projected to grow with ongoing price appreciation.

Let’s connect at 508-360-5664 and msennott@todayrealestate.com to discuss your options. We’re happy to answer your questons.

…and remember last month we sold our home of 28 years and downsized to an area that we had been thinking about for years.

Stay safe this week and please keep an eye on the kids and adults, who are not familiar with the water. Thanks…

Mari and Hank